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District 1 - (D) Incumbent: Timothy Bishop

Seeker's favoured challenger: Lee Zeldin (R) - web site
Strengths: Relative youth, extensive military experience (reserve Army Captain and Iraq war veteran). Zeldin may benefit from the "coattail" effect if John McCain has a successful campaign. In his video feeds, he addresses issues relevant to his district, and does not have any negative baggage.
Weaknesses: Mounting a campaign against a four-term Democratic incumbent who has substantial political experience and backing from the Dem political machine, lack of policy and position papers on web site, web site usability issues (the top page loads a popup that obscures the site - link provided here skips past that to the underlying index page.).
Seeker's Endorsement? : Yes, with reservations. Zeldin generally supports the core GOP positions on defense and (in theory) limited spending. He has not publicly stated his position on the continuance and scope of the "war on terror".

Other challengers:
Italo Zanzi (R) (no information available/campaign web site down)...  The Wikipedia entry on him indicates that he ran unsuccessfully against Bishop in 2006, but garnered 39% of the vote. If he mounts a serious effort in 2008, he might be able to displace Zeldin as a frontrunner; however, the probability of this happening seems slimmer as time goes on.
Kathleen Troia McFarland (R) (web site)... She is a national security expert and columnist/commentator; was a member of Henry Kissinger's National Security Council during the Nixon and Ford administrations.The Wikipedia entry on her indicates that she ran unsuccessfully in the GOP primary for Senator Hillary Clinton's seat in 2006. Her site contains a rather glowing appraisal of John McCain, and can be construed as her endorsement of the same candidate.

District 2 - (D) Incumbent: Steve Israel

Seeker's favoured challenger: John Bugler (R) - web site
Strengths: Endorsed by the NY Constitution Party. Proponent and defender of constitutional government. Has run numerous times for NY-02 as well as seats in the NYS Assembly. Paleo-conservative.
Weaknesses: An absolutely atrociously designed web site, and he stands very little chance of winning partially due to his staunchly paleoconservative values which some might regard with the same sort of general disdain establishment Republicans held for Ron Paul. Additionally, he is contesting a heavily gerrymandered district (in favour of the Democrats) against four-term incumbent and Blue-Dog Democrat Steve Israel.
Seeker's Endorsement? : Yes. Mr. Bugler is definitely a long-shot, but he stands on principle and on the Constitution.

District 3 - (R) Incumbent Peter R. King - web site
Strengths: Good on border control and immigration. Lifetime ACU rating of 76.9% Seems to be a defense hawk and mildly social conservative. He will likely be a good mesh with a McCain administration.
Weaknesses: Not a Constitutionalist (he supports the Patriot Act provisions including wire tapping of citizens), record and position on reducing government spending is not clear. Weak on gun issues, gaining a D- from the Gun Owners of America.
Seeker's Endorsement? : Partially, because the alternatives do not approach Congressman King's ability to get re-elected in an increasingly leftward-leaning district. I would consider Congressman King to be something of a RINO.

Opponents: This seat appears not to be seriously contested... although:

Bill Corrigan (I) - web site
Strengths/Weaknesses: Hard to determine. Prospective candidate's site seems to be not connected to any campaign he might be running, and the FEC has not listed any financial activity for Mr. Corrigan.

Threat Assessment: This district should be expected to remain under Republican control.

District 4 - (D) Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - no apparent challenger

Other (Potential) challengers:
Martin "Marty" Blessinger (R) - (web site points to a squatted domain) a retired career police officer and a 2006 challenger for this district. Mr. Blessinger's campaign was troubled by allegations of non-disclosure of candidate status (due to the alleged expenditure of over $5000 on campaign materials). The complaint/charge (PDF) was filed on 5. Oct. 2006 on behalf of Congresswoman McCarthy by her campaign with the FEC, and dismissed on 1. Mar. 2007, closing the file (PDF) on 15. Mar. 2007. There appears to be no publicly available record of any appeal to this dismissal as provided by Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971.

Mr. Blessinger's campaign may have been dealt considerable disadvantage from defending the allegations, and does not appear as a candidate for NY-04 in 2008 on the FEC web site.

Threat Assessment: While Republican, Conservative or Constitution Party prospects remain quite thin in this district, a stellar candidate with substantial funding may be able to win this district back from Democrat control.

District 5 - (D) Incumbent: Gary Ackerman

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congressman Ackerman has held this district and its predecessor (NY-07:1990) from previous censuses since 1983, and can certainly be considered a district favourite, consistently defeating Republican challengers by extremely large margins (typically over 65%). He was unchallenged in 2006.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permanent Democrat stronghold.

District 6 - (D) Incumbent: Gregory W. Meeks

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congressman Meeks has held this district since winning it in a special election to replace retiring Congressman Floyd H. Flake in 1998, and been largely unchallenged in any election since then (with the exception of an Indepence Party candidate who lost by a 93% margin in 2002).

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permanent Democrat stronghold.

District 7 - (D) Incumbent: Joseph Crowley

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congressman Crowley has held this district since winning it in 1998, and has largely crushed any opposition in any election since then by very large margins. Kevin Brawley, a former Bronx Conserative Party chairman, has run as the Republican candidate for this seat in 2006 and in 2002, both quite unsuccessfully. There is no credible evidence to suggest that he will mount a challenge this election year.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permanent Democrat stronghold.

District 8 - (D) Incumbent: Jerrold L. Nadler

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congressman Nadler has held this district since winning it in 1992, and has largely crushed any opposition in any election since then by very large margins. Potential candidates include Eleanor Friedman (R) and Dennis Adornato (CPNY). Both campaigned in 2006 for this seat; neither person has an entry with the FEC for the 2008 campaign.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permanent Democrat stronghold.

District 9 - (D) Incumbent: Anthony D. Weiner

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congressman Weiner has held this district since winning it in 1998 following his predecessor, Sen. Charles Schumer's successful Senate bid. Congreeman Weiner has easily crushed any opposition in recent elections since then by very large margins. He is considered by many in Democratic Party circles to be an excellent prospect for the upcoming 2009 NYC Mayoral Race (in timing with Mayor Bloomberg's term-limited retirement).

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permament Democrat stronghold.

District 10 - (D) Incumbent: Edolphus Towns

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed by any GOP, CPNY, or Constitution Party candidates; there may be some Democratic Party primary challengers.. Congressman Towns has held this district (and its predecessor, NY-11 from the 1990 census) since winning it in 1983, and has easily crushed any opposition in recent elections since then by very large margins.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a solid Democrat stronghold. Depending upon Congressman Towns's advancing age, or health situation, he may retire within the next few election cycles.

District 11 - (D) Incumbent: Yvette Clarke

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed by any GOP, CPNY, or Constitution Party candidates; there may be some Democratic Party primary challengers.. Congresswoman Clarke has held this district since winning it in 2006.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a solid Democrat stronghold. Even though Congresswoman Clarke is a first-term incumbent, the district has always favoured Democrats since the 1990 and subsequent redistrictings.

District 12 - (D) Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congresswoman Velasquez has held this district since winning it in 1993, and has easily crushed any opposition in recent elections since then by very large margins.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permament Democrat stronghold.

District 13 - (R) Incumbent: Vito Fossella - web site (links to the Congressman's 2006 campaign site)

Strengths: Very strong social and defense conservative, less so fiscally. Lifetime ACU rating of 85.8% and a solid Catholic in a solidly Catholic Italian district (Staten Island particularly), he will stand to do well in 2008. Received a B- from the Gun Owners of America.
Weaknesses: Lingering controversies include campaign finance issues and possible allegations of ethics violations involving the hire of campaign staffers as contractors/consultants using House funds.
Seeker's Endorsement? : Pending further research.

Other challengers:
Stephen Harrison (D) - Mr. Harrison also challenged the incumbent in 2006, losing to the Congressman by a narrow 13.6% margin.
Domenic M. Recchia, Jr (D-NYC-47) - NYC Councilman Recchia is a challenger in the Democratic primary for this seat.
Michael Cusick (D-NY-AD-63) - NY State Assemblyman Cusick has the endorsement of Democratic Congressman Anthony Wiener (NY-09), but has not filed with the FEC to date.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered at moderate risk of loss to a Democrat challenger.

District 14 - (D) Incumbent: Carolyn B. Maloney

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congresswoman Maloney has held this district since winning it in 1993, and has easily crushed any opposition in recent elections since then by very large margins.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permament Democrat stronghold.

District 15 - (D) Incumbent: Charles B. Rangel

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congressman Rangel has held this district since winning it in 1993, and in its predecessor from the 1990 census (NY-16) from 1983. He has overwhelmingly dominated every election since 1993, consistently winning over 90% of the vote. It may be noteworthy that this Congressman is among the most liberal of politions (ACU-Lifetime: 3.9% | CCA: 8% | NARAL: 100% | ACLU: 93% ) and reflects the rather unlikely chance of a Republican winning this seat anytime soon.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permament Democrat stronghold.

District 16 - (D) Incumbent: Jose E. Serrano

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congressman Serrano has held this district since winning a special election in the 1990 census (NY-18), and won succeeding terms following the 1993 re-districting to the (NY-16). Like Congressman Rangel, Congressman Serrano has one of the safest seats in Congress, and has overwhelmingly dominated his re-election cycles consistently bringing in over 90% of the vote.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permament Democrat stronghold.

District 17 - (D) Incumbent: Eliot L. Engel

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed either in the primary or the general election.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a permament Democrat stronghold.

District 18 - (D) Incumbent: Nita Lowey

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed either in the primary or the general election. This district currently contains the very affluent bedroom/suburban communities of White Plains, Scarsdale, Mamaroneck, and much of Westchester County and part of Rockland County. In 2004 and 2006, Richard A. Hoffman, an investment banker and largely self-funded candidate, challenged the ten-term incumbent unsuccessfully, averaging about 30% of the vote. Earlier contests typically split the GOP and Conservative PArty-NY vote or offered other NY minor parties into the mix. If Mr. Hoffman doesn't run again, a well-funded candidate here might have a distant chance of winning (at least more so than the permanent stronghold districts in NYC)

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a solid Democrat stronghold.

District 19 - (D) Incumbent: John Hall

Seeker's favoured challenger: Kieran M. Lalor (R) - web site
Strengths: Pro family, staunchly pro-life. Iraqi war veteran (Mr. Lalor has helped to found the Iraqi Veterans for Congress PAC ) and dedicated to winning the war on terror, comes from a Catholic background (a boon in a heavily Catholic populated Orange, north Rockland, north Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties)
Weaknesses: Relative lack of funding, lack of media access and promotion - relative to Congressman Hall and Mr. Andrew Saul (R), another potential contender in the September primary.

Seeker's Endorsement? : Absolutely, based upon Mr. Lalor's principles. While Mr. Lalor is not a "Ron Paul" paleoconservative, he does stand for many of the other touchstone issues that most conservatives can agree upon. If he gets the CPNY ballot line, that will be a major boon to his campaign given NY State's electoral fusion rules.

Caveats: The state GOP may be trying to find a wealthier candidate who can self-fund against the incumbent, who is independently wealthy through his former career as rock star (of the band "Orleans") and someone who may have received PAC funds from George Soros. Mr. Lalor's views are somewhat more conservative than the current mainstream of the GOP - and he might even clash against a McCain presidency. An Iraqi war veteran, he is expected to make issues regarding veterans and the prosecution of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan a high priority.

Other challengers:
George Oros (R) - (no web site currently available) An attorney and partner of the law firm Brotman, Oros, & Brusca in White Plains and currently seated as Westchester County's First District Legislator (he has held that office since 1995). Mr. Oros would bring considerable experience to the table. Though he has held his legislative district, in recent election cycles where he faced Democratic opposition, his victory margin has decreased considerably, to the point where he may face a serious risk of losing his seat in the next election cycle.

Mr. Oros does not have significant funds (trailing behind Mr. Lalor, and far behind either Mr. Saul and Congresman Hall), but if the RNCC machinery decides ultimately to back him, that picture could change. A potentially humourous yet negative item might lie in his name, which has an unfortunate phonetic and spelling similarity to "George Soros", the well-known ultra-liberal financier who bankrolls much of the liberal wing of the Democratic party machine.

Mr. Oros is believed to be pro-gun by the blogger "Jacob" at the NYSRPA web site citing a favourable rating by the Westchester Firearm Owners Association.

Andrew Saul (R) - ( web site ) Mr. Saul has stepped down, although the FEC web site still lists him as a challenger. There are unconfirmed rumours that he may yet re-enter the race, and it is unlikely that he has petitioned the Board of Elections to remove his name from the ballot. As a multimillionaire, he could be expected to be the RNCC favourite. Mr. Lalor has given an unfavourable opinion of Mr. Saul's as being too moderate, much like former Congresswoman Sue Kelly, the previous incumbent whom Congressman Hall defeated in the 2006 election.

Threat Assessment: This district is a viable Republican target, especially if the RNCC gets behind Mr. Lalor's candidacy. There is a fair chance that the incumbent could be unseated, especially if the recent scandal involving Governor Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) is not given sufficient distance by Congressman Hall, including but not necessarily being limited to issues regarding Hall's campaign funding from Spitzer's coffers. (as if he really needed that $1000 donation... link goes to Mr. Lalor's campaign blog)

District 20 - (D) Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand

Seeker's favoured challenger: LTC(Ret.-USA) Michael Rocque (R) - web site
Strengths: Pro family, staunchly pro-life Army veteran. Pro-Gun, Defense conservative.
Weaknesses: Relative lack of funding, lack of media access and promotion - relative to Congressman Gillibrand and Mr. Treadwelll (R), another potential contender in the September primary. Also, media exposure is very low compared to Mr. Treadwell, who has been running advertisements since the beginning of the first quarter. The other candidates being much more cash strapped are also unable to get their message out.The local party machinery also seems to favour the more leftist-leaning Mr. Treadwell as a matter of expediency to unseat the incumbent.

Seeker's Endorsement? : Tentatively, until I can learn more about his stands... I'd much rather endorse John wallace (see below) but his particular weaknesses (enumerated below) cause me to withhold my endorsement from him.

Caveats: As with NY-19 above, the state GOP will be more likely to back a wealthier candidate who can self-fund against the incumbent, who reportedly receives major contributions from the same PACs and individuals who supported Senator Hillary Clinton. Mr. Rocque's views are slightly more conservative than the current mainstream of the GOP, but from what I read of him, he would be a good fit as far as national security and defense are concerned, with a McCain presidency. As he is an Iraqi war veteran, he is expected to make issues regarding veterans and the prosecution of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan a high priority.

Other challengers:
John Wallace (R, NY-CP) - ( web site ) I like this guy... really, I do. A four-square paleoconservative. But he is utterly unelectable, for a number of reasons:

• Finances. He has limited donors only to a symbolic donation of $76 per donor (as a nod to the "Spirit of Liberty" in 1776). This betrays an either overly idealistic approach or a a naïve one, with regards to the incumbent's likelihood of securing massive funding from the DLC or DNCC. He has also declined PAC and other special interest group funding. As a result of his, he trails behind nearly every other GOP challenger

• Second: he has an absolutely eye-poppingly awful atrocity of a web site. It takes an extraordinary act of will not to click away upon sighting the weird little dancing cartoon man, the page bursting with at least five different typefaces, several huge beveled button graphic links and a background festooned with a low-resolution GIF of the US flag. It would have been a fine site in 1996... but c'mon, my retinas are still haemorrhaging from looking at the break-dancing cartoon men. The only way he could have possibly done worse would have been to have the blinking red text in all caps, dancing flames set in a skull's eye sockets, or a big spinning flashing siren light.
  
  Certainly this - especially the flag GIF images - is very patriotic, just like most Americans. But it is also woefully bereft of presentation and style - like many Americans. Yes, Virginia... people (especially voters) are REALLY that stupidly shallow to ignore a candidate for crummy web site design: if you want to be taken somewhat seriously* in an election in the 21st century, you must at least make a token effort at presenting a professionally done web site to your audience. Even the much-maligned Ron Paul had professionals do his site up nicely, and I dare say that Dr. Paul did so much the better for it.
  
  Fortunately or unfortunately, there are even more egregious violators of my eyes' tender sensiblities than Mr. Wallace, including one much younger candidate for Congress in Michigan (MI-11), a Mr. Ted McAvoy. For the love of little puppies, dude... hire a professional for a couple of C-notes. And while you are at it, lose the "red tie over the red satin shirt" look, unless you want somebody to mistake you for a used car salesman.

• Third: To whatever degree that he is/was a Ron Paul supporter tars him in the eyes of the mainstream GOP, he will also be affected by that. I cannot say for certain whether or not this would have a negative or positive effect on his campaign, but I tend to think that it will hurt him more as he is entering a contest with numerous potential GOP candidates who are much closer to the current moderate mainstream, evinced by our recent selection of John McCain.

Getting past that, he has several position papers that clearly line out his stands on gettting us out of the UN, setting a reasonable goal for the standup of Iraqi Defense Forces and government, and get our troops home, among others. He is also well-informed, and his experience as a NYS trooper and experience as a business owner appear to be have given him some ability to articulate his positions clearly and rationally.

Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell (R) - ( web site ) A former chairman of the NY State GOP, and former NY Secretary of State, he is the likely "establishment" or (as I am inclined to say) "liberal country club Republican" candidate, with the largest war chest (over $1.2M as of 2007 year's end) of any declared GOP challenger. His political connections and history as well as his war chest may all but assure him the nomination despite the significantly more conservative stances of either Mr. Rocque or Mr. Wallace. He currently has the backing of all of the County republican chairs in his district, and is a strong indicator of both the generally centrist/"moderate" leaning of the GOP as a whole (where "moderate" - as George Marlin pithiliy observes - has a code word for "liberal" Or "Rockefeller" Republican, if you are old enough to remember that lot).

Plus, Mr. Treadwell does have a kind of cool sounding last name that implies a sort of a good thing, which could be easily parlayed into a catchy, if not campy slogan: "Let's Tread Well toward taking back the 20th for a Republican Congress!" or something along those lines. Of course, if you are a Star Wars geek, that could backfire humourously as well... → ( see Treadwell droid image) Kidding aside, Mr. Treadwell appears to be quite the wonk in terms of environmental and conservation and energy policy (caveat: he is the grandson of a GE founding executive). According to his wiki article, he is described by conservative commentator George Marlin on 12 december 2007 as a "liberal elitist". If this is so, he will be the perfect party fit for a McCain presidency, and a potential cabinet pick if his nomination or election bid fail.

* RINO Alert! * On guns, the NYSRPA blog tersely characterizes Mr. Treadwell as an "anti-gun RINO", indicating that he is a self-created and self-financed product of a GOP that can only see dollar signs and the very shortest, most apparently expedient solution to wresting back the traditionally Republican NY-20 (covering mostly the upper Hudson Valley counties) from Democratic control.

While the NYSRPA blogger's opinion is more narrowly confined to gun rights issues, this is the same perversion of Reagan's 80% rule (which in brief states that he was willing to compromise with liberal and moderate Republicans in order to accomplish 80% of his goals) that has allowed liberals like McCain to sneak through and win the nomination: except that the GOP is taking a less than 50-50 compromise - dare I say the reverse: some in the GOP are so concerned with keeping the war going, or certain aspects of the Bush tax cuts on the table, that they gladly sacrifice social conservatives and most certainly the fiscal hawks that they'll take whatever the Democrats dish out in terms of pork or social program increases. Or liberty-killing legislation and gun-grabbing.

"Richard C. Wager (R) - ( web site ) Mr. Wager is a former aide to NYC Mayor Bloomberg has withdrawn from the race, echoing the statement of his disappointment in GOP machine politics from his web site (this could be a veiled barb directed particularly at Mr. Treadwell's and less so at Mr. Rocque's jockeying for endorsements from various county and local GOP committees)

Threat Assessment: This district is a viable Republican target, especially if the RNCC gets behind Mr. Rocque's candidacy. Mr. Treadwell is also a likely favourite, and he certainly has the financial wherewithal to take on Congresswoman Gillibrand in the general election... although if the latter wins, I won't have very high expectations other than to hope that either Mr. Rocque or Mr. Wallace will be around to challenge him in the 2010 primary.

There is a fair chance that the incumbent could be unseated, if either Mr. Rocque or Mr. Treadwell are nominated. I hold out less hope for Mr. Wallace, as he will have an extremely hard time competing against Mr. Treadwell's money machine, to say nothing of his sharply defined, extremely likeable (by folks like me, at any rate) paleoconservatism.

District 21 - Vacant Seat (formerly held by) : Michael R. McNulty (D)

Seeker's favoured challenger: Warren Redlich (R) - web site
Strengths: Currently the only apparent (R) challenger for an open contest seat. Based upon his earlier (not current) blog entries, he is possibly running as a Ron Paul Republican. If this is so, that would be a bonus.
Weaknesses: Ambivalence on his campaign, lack of a web site front-end with stated positions and contacts, contribution links, events, etc.
Seeker's Endorsement? : Pending confirmation of his actual entry into the race. Although he has filed with the FEC, he does not seem to be mounting much of an effort in a rather Democrat-heavy district.

Other challengers:
A whole bunch of Democrats - I'll pass on listing them for now.

Threat Assessment: There is a small chance that a Republican can win this seat. There are numerous Democratic contenders for Mr. McNulty's vacating seat. If Mr. Redlich can step up his campaign presence, as well as playing up his Ron paul credentials (especially the anti-war stance) he might be able to absorb some independents and working class Democrats.

District 22 - (D) Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Seeker's favoured challenger: David R. Grate (R) - web site
Strengths: Ron Paul style conservative Republican. Pro-gun, pro-life, seeks withdrawal from UN, homeschoolers' rights, immigration reform and border control; opposes unconstitutional wars, unchecked govt. spending, and "amnesty" (immigration issue). Statement of belief in Holy Bible. (I'm sold!).
Weaknesses: Weak funding, lack of likelihood to emerge as the choice of the local "Party Machine". Opposes federal income tax, Iraq war, and Patriot act. (I generally think these are good things, but through the filter of how these stances fail to resonate with the mainstream RNCC or GOP policy, they could represent liabilities). Statement of belief in Holy Bible (may not resonate with secularists or with crucial Independent voters, many of whom may be Ron Paul supporters as well).
Seeker's Endorsement? : Absolutely yes.

Other challengers:
Bruce Layman (R) - (no web site currently available) There is very little info available on Mr. Layman. According to this post on the Poughkeepsie Journal forums, he seems to be looking for the Conservative Party-NY endorsement. He seems to be taking issue with the incumbent's wasteful use of taxpayer money (to wit, leasing two late model vehicles that do not meet the fuel efficiency mandate he voted for to be imposed on the average citizen). However, a lack of a web presence or much of any activity beyond a few piqued ;ress releases seems to demonstrate a lack of real interest in winning the GOP nomination for this district.
George K. Phillips (R) - ( web site ) Due to his relatively larger financial pool and closer alignment to the GOP party line, he is likely to emerge as the front-runner. Upon his merits alone, I would consider him my second choice. His ideas call for responsible spending and accountability with the budget, and expediting the stand-up of Iraqi defense and police forces so that we may withdraw sooner. Mr. Phillips also supports promoting energy independence, including tapping into domestically available sources in the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the ANWR.
Joseph M. Schmidt (R) - ( web site ) Curiously, this man seeking a Republican nomination supports universal healthcare (socialized medicine). Another oddity is the fact that as of the end of February 2008, he has no residence in the boundaries of NY-22. Technically, this is not illegal, according to the US Constitution and the NY Board of Elections, although New York State Constitution does impose certain residency obligations of office-seekers. See this PoJo News article for details. This may work against him significantly, as even though it is legal, most voters may not be aware of the exceptions, and therefore be reticent to vote for him. As of this posting, his web site still shows that he is seeking signatures to grant him ballot access.

Threat Assessment:This district should be considered a solid Democrat stronghold. There is a very small chance that the incumbent might be unseated.

District 23 - (R) Incumbent: John M. McHugh - web site (note: this is Congressman McHugh's official site; currently, his campaign site is a placeholder page)

Strengths: Not a whole lot of information on this guy, and he seems to be fairly non-controversial. Lifetime ACU rating of 74.6% from 2006 ratings. Elected to NY-24 in 1992 and was redistricted to this district following the 2000 census; has defeated his opponents by wide margins, although the 2006 election was within 26.3% and may reflect a growing Democratic voting trend for this district. Additionally, this district has very tight contests in Presidential races in the past decade.
Weaknesses: (no major weaknesses or outstanding controversies observed) - Will edit this if new information becomes available.
Seeker's Endorsement? :I do not have enough information on this candidate to give an endorsement; however, with no other GOP candidates liable to enter a primary contest, he will likely need party support if the GOP desires to hold this district..

Other challengers:
Michael Oot (D) - ( web site )Currently an attorney and an elected officer on a local school board, Mr. Oot is challenging the incumbent. His web site seems not to be well maintained (appears to be the 2006 campaign site) or well designed. Mr. Oot alleges that the district is "under represented", claiming that the incumbent congressman does not visit or interact often with his constituency outside of Jefferson County.
Jeremy Brunton (D) - ( no web site available ) Mr. Brunton is seeking the Democratic nomination to run against the incumbent... not much information is available for this candidate, and there is no FEC information on file for him. He is 26 years old (as of this posting) and is likely his first campaign for elected office.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered at slight risk of loss to a Democrat challenger.

District 24 - (D) Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - no apparent challenger. This is a shame, as this district has consistently polled Republican in the past. The incumbent is a first term congressman, and is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, who as a group tend to vote to the right of the Democratic Party mainstream; this may account for his success in the district following former Congressman Sherwood Boehlert's retirement. The former congressman was known for being a "moderate" (read: liberal) Republican, with a lifetime ACU rating of 40.1%.

Other (Potential) challengers: (None of these potential challengers have filed with the FEC yet)..
Richard L. Hanna (R) - ( no web site available) Mentioned in this article (29 Nov. 2007) as being a possible contender.
Michael Sylvia (L) - ( web site ) Ran in 2006, gaining only 1% of the vote. A Ron Paul supporter, his web site gives no indication that he will run this year.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered at solid Democratic stronghold, with a minute chance of a Republican victory..

District 25 - Vacant Seat (formerly held by) : James T. Walsh (R) (retiring incumbent)

Seeker's favoured challenger: David A. Gay (R, NY-CP) ( web site )
Strengths:Identifies as a "Ron Paul Republican"; holds generally paleo-conservative views (against unconstitutional, undeclared wars, against burdensome taxes, pro-free market) and has been endorsed by the NY Constitution Party, and likely the NY Conservative Party
Weaknesses: Relative youth and lack of previous legislative experience - he is very much an "unknown".
Seeker's Endorsement? :Considering the lack of any other qualified candidate, and his self-described alignment with the politics of Ron Paul, he is as good a bet as a paleoconservative can get for this district.

Other challengers:
Peter Cappuccilli, Jr (R) - ( withdrew from race on 25 Mar. 2008 ) COO of Gilberti, Stinziato, Heintz & Smith, P.C. He has entered the race according to this article, but currenly has no significant funding according to his FEC statements for the year ending in 2007.
Dan Maffei (D) - ( web site ) The DNC has realized the potential ease with which Mr. Maffei may be able to win this district from Republican hands, and has direct considerable funding to his war chest, now over a half-million dollars. In the 2006 election, Mr. Mafei only lost by 1.6%; this district has been slowly skewing leftward as indicated by its wide support for John Kerry in the 2004 election..

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered at Severe Risk of Loss to a Democrat challenger.

District 26 - Vacant Seat (formerly held by) : Thomas M. Reynolds (R)

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - The incumbent is retiring his seat, and the potential Republican candidate has not yet been endorsed by any Republican committee.

Other challengers:
Jack Davis (D) - ( web site ) A multi-millionaire industrialist who until the 2004 election cycle had been among the beginnings of the New Right (predecessors to the neoconservative movement now dominating GOP political circles, but not the entirely keeping with the paleoconservative leanings of the anti-FDR pre-WW2 GOP). Mr. Davis broke with the GOP following a sharp disagreement with Dick Cheney (or specifically, one of his staffers) after he was ejected from the $1000 per plate fund raiser for questioning Cheney's free trade policies. He is also opposed to the war, but more likely on account of being more closely paleoconservative than being a Code PINK radical. I would not be entirely opposed to his winning, assuming he becomes aligned to the Blue Dog faction of the Democrats.
Alice Kryzan (D) - ( web site ) Ms. Kryzan seems to be garden-variety liberal Democrat, and seems to have a particular interest in green energy/renewable energy production, universal healthcare, and ending the "war".
Jon Powers (D) - ( web site ) Mr. Powers seems to be the strongest likely contender in the NY-26 Democratic primary, devoting himself to a lot of "retail" politics, and racking up endorsement after endorsement from various local Democratic committees and personalities. He also brings his Iraqi veteran status to the table, and relative youth (at age 29). Beyond that, he represents the standard Democratic agenda (universal healthcare, Iraqi withdrawal, etc.).

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered at Severe Risk of Loss to a Democrat challenger.

District 27 - (D) Incumbent: Brian M. Higgins

Seeker's favoured challenger: Daniel J. Humiston (R, NY-IP) - no campaign web site yet, but this article references his entry into the race.
Strengths: Ability to self-fund a substantial part of his campaign. Potentially may appear on Conservative Party ballot line, and will likely appear on the NY Independence Party ballot line. Founder of a national chain of tanning salons.
Weaknesses: I do not have any information on any outstanding weaknesses Mr. Humiston might have. I will update this should this situation change.
Seeker's Endorsement? : Tentatively "yes"...

Other challengers:
None to date (16. Mar. 2008)

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a likely to remain Democratic, although a well-funded and well-orchestrated Republican campaign might unseat the incumbent.

District 28 - (D) Incumbent: Louise Slaughter

Seeker's favoured challenger: (none) - Incumbent is unopposed. Congresswoman Slaughter has held this district and its predecessor (NY-30:1987-1993; NY-28 thereafter) from previous censuses since 1987, and can certainly be considered a district favourite, defeating Republican challengers by wide margins (typically over 40%) in the two previous election cycles.

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered a uncontested and solid Democrat stronghold.

District 29 - (R) Incumbent: Randy Kuhl - web site

Strengths: Lifetime ACU rating of 87.5% from 2006 ratings. Elected to NY-29 in 2006; is generally conservative, pro-business, pro-life, supports the War on Terror™ and has a stellar record on gun rights, securing an A rating from the NRA in 2006 (2008 ratings are not available yet) and A- rating from the Gun Owner's of America. Congressman Kuhl is conservative on immigration issues, gaining a 100% rating from the English First SIG in 2007. Supports the continuance of the Bush tax cuts.
Weaknesses: According to the divorce records that were leaked by his 2006 opponent , while undergoing what could be characterized as a "messy" divorce, Kuhl allegedly threatened his ex-wife. Additionally, he had been characterized as an abusive husband and a heavy drinker. While it is unlikely that these allegations could be brought up again by his opposition, they still may remain in the memory of the voters. If Congressman Kuhl's opposition does try to revive these issues as a part of a negative campaigning strategy, it could potentially backfire.
Seeker's Endorsement? : Yes, although he is not a "Ron Paul Republican", he is definitely a far better choice than the liberal Democrats seeking to unseat him..

Other challengers:
Massa, Eric J. J. (D) - ( web site ) Former Republican, switched to Democratic Party some time prior to his 2006 run for NY-29. Anti-war and pro universal healthcare (socialized medicine).
David Nachbar (D) - ( candidate withdrew on 4 Aug. 2007).

Threat Assessment: This district should be considered at moderate risk of loss to a Democrat challenger.