I was looking over at the Real Clear Politics site earlier, watching their compilation of the recent (as of 4. Oct.) polls showing Rudi G. with an average 27.2% of respondents, ahead about 7% of Fred Thompson in second place with 20.2%, and farther down the list, another one I’m keeping my eyes on, Mike Huckabee (if nothing else, as a potential VP pick for Fred). The RCP average of the polls shows a slight downward trend for Fred, which is likely rooted in the gaffes and seemingly poor expression of that unique blend of acting and quick thinking needed to do well on camera. I begin to worry, and pray, that he does much better on the upcoming MSNBC (*cough*) coverage of the GOP candidates’ debate in Dearborn, MI on 9. October (9pm ET)…

The Rasmussen Reports indicate a much smaller lead by Thompson (21%) over Rudi G. (19%), and while 2% points is hardly significant, I am willing to give the Rasmussen Reports *slightly* more weight, considering their track record thus far with the previous results in 2000 and 2004. However, this is by no means as clear an indication of who is most likely to take the GOP’s nomination, considering that this week’s Rasmussen Reports poll also shows Huckabee tracking up a few ticks, and more importantly, another 21% of respondents who were undecided.

That’s right folks: according to that Rasmussen Report, there are just as many folks who picked Fred! as there are folks who have not make up their minds yet. While I’ll say again and again that polls are not the end-all, be-all of what is on people’s minds — a well-done poll can be indicative of the trends. And that undecided 21% will likely grow smaller (although not disappear altogether) - with some larger portion going to one of the front-runners. If Fred gets his act together, he could well snag a fair or larger share of that undecided group, and pull well ahead, or those undecideds could as easily swing toward a relatively unlikely chap like Gov. Huckabee (who is still solidly conservative, unlike that neo-paleocon fruit bat, Ron Paul).

Now, here is a ray of light in an otherwise dank, depressing sewer full of unappetizing GOP picks (aside from Fred!, and Hunter and Huckabee) — with Rudi G. more or less committed to the same approach to certain issues, i.e. “the gun-banning, gay parade marching, baby-killing Republican mayor of NYC”, he has alienated a large segment the Christian vote. Some dust was kicked up by a number of “Evangelicals”, who threatened to support a third party candidate if Rudi G. got the nomination. This is most likely a blustering attempt to “bring Rudi G.” (and also Thompson, who seems mum on abortions and gay marriages, willing to let the states sort those two items out for themselves, while preserving gun rights) into the social-conservative mold of both Bushes and Reagan…

While this could backfire for the “Evangelicals”, as nobody in the GOP camp (including Huckabee, who in my estimation most closely fits the FoF/NEA bill) has passed muster with James “Focus on the Family” Dobson, it may either help Rudi G. re-focus his stance (or at least convincingly lie through his teeth about it until he gets into office like most good politicians), or propel someone like Huckabee further up in the polls. Thompson, for his part, is less likely to do the sort of spinning and dodging and weaving I might expect from Rudi G., and therefore, will probably not toe the line that the “Evangelicals” want. Fortunately, thus far… Fred! has not come under this same “anathema” that Rudi has. At least, not explicitly so.

Dobson, who is now functioning as the Evangelical Faction’s “kingmaker” since (former pastor) Ted Haggard had the wheels fall off of his wagon, is afraid that he and his faction(s) will have no control over the POTUS as Ted Haggard boastingly said he did as president of the National Evangelical Association back before he got outed. Personally, I think he would do well to back a moderate (Fred Thompson) even if he could get over whatever pride issues he may have toward Fred, and learn to live with reduced influence over the White House, than to split the ticket, and loose ALL influence whatsoever to a Democratic winner.

Furthermore, if some kind of back room deal can be worked out where Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee will support one another as POTUS and VP (regardless of which of the two wins the nomination) - and then (after the primary) can perhaps sweeten the deal a little with Dobson and Co. - that may very well go a long ways toward giving them a large stand of support against the most ruthless and well financed Democratic political machine ever to run for POTUS when Hillary snags her nomination.